The climate crisis: The kids aren't alright

Published on April 6th, 2022

Dr Wim Thiery

University of Brussels

Frontiers Policy Labs spoke with Wim Thiery, an associate professor at the University of Brussels, a climate scientist who uses computer models to project how climate extremes will evolve in the future.

Dr. Thiery, who was named one of Europe’s “30 Under 30” by Forbes, is a contributing author on two past IPCC reports and his research is featured in the report on climate change impacts that recently came out. His work also coordinated the development of a climate change impact-assessment tool available here.

We invite you to read the interview and explore the impact-assessment tool.

Commentary

Dr Wim Thiery

If we continue with current pledges in response to the climate change crisis, what will today’s children face?

Scientists predict about 2.4°C of global warming by the end of this century under current policy pledges, compared to preindustrial times. In our studies, we calculated the meaning of that level of warming, in terms of how many extreme climate events a real person in a real location will face across an entire lifetime. Compared to their grandparents, children born today will face 1.5 times more tropical cyclones, 2.6 times more droughts, 2.8 times as many river floods, nearly 3 times as many crop failures, 2 times the number of wildfires, and 7 times the number of extreme heatwaves under current pledges. These numbers illustrate unprecedented increases in lifetime extreme-event exposure for today’s young generations. Without doubt, the increased numbers of lifetime extreme climate events will significantly impact not only people’s lives but also whole societies and economies.

Heatwaves, for example, are silent killers that cause many fatalities—the 2003 heatwave in Europe caused 70,000 deaths. Three critical elements are needed to quantify the true impact of an extreme climate event like a heatwave: a hazard component (how much will heatwaves increase?); an exposure component (will heatwaves happen where people live and grow crops?); and a vulnerability component (will the affected people be young and healthy or old and sick?). Often, people who are the most vulnerable—both health-wise and socioeconomically—are the most affected by extreme climate events. Quantifying vulnerability is extremely difficult, and when climate hazards occur, they can change vulnerabilities in a non-linear fashion, because one extreme event may increase or decrease vulnerability to future extremes.

Further, it is likely that our results underestimate reality. Since we use annual timescales, multiple events within one year are counted as one event. Second, we only count extreme events, without incorporating their intensity and duration, both of which could increase in the future. Finally, we assume that extreme climate events happen in isolation, while in reality, they are correlated. Droughts, heatwaves, and crop failures tend to occur together, as do hurricanes and river floods. This linkage between extreme events results in larger impacts on people and society than would occur if those hazards happened in isolation.

Will children across the world face the same impacts of climate change?

Very strong intergenerational inequities exist, in terms of exposure to climate extremes. The younger people are and the higher the warming level, the greater the number of extreme events they will experience. If 3.5°C of global warming occur, children across the world will face, on average, 44 times more extreme heatwaves compared to people living in a world without climate change. In the Middle East and North Africa, people under 25 will face at least a 7-fold increase in lifetime exposure to all categories of climate extremes which we considered and newborns will face a 9-fold or greater increase relative to those in a world without climate change.

In addition to this intergenerational injustice, we also see international injustice. Young people in low-income countries will face, by far, the strongest increase in lifetime extreme event exposures, followed by young children in lower-middle income countries. From 2015–2020, 64 million children were born in Europe and Central Asia, and those children will face a 4-fold increase in lifetime extreme event exposures. In the same period, 206 million children were born in sub-Saharan Africa and those children will face a 6-fold increase. So, not only does the average child in sub-Saharan Africa face a much stronger increase in exposure, but there are also many more children born into that situation. As African countries contribute only minimally to global-scale emissions, these children bear a disproportionate burden of the impact of global warming. Finally, these children are among the most vulnerable. Often, their survival depends on agriculture and their homes are not well protected against climate extremes like tropical cyclones or heatwaves.

Adaptations to climate change (e.g., flood-protection methods and drought-resistant crops) have limits, as recognized by the IPCC. When these limits are reached, mortality and/or migration will result. While projections of climate-induced migration over the upcoming decades are very large, migration does not necessarily reduce vulnerability. In addition, climate extremes may negatively affect individuals’ financial resources, increasing their immobility.

If we increase our ambition and limit global warming, this burden on young generations can be substantially reduced. Based on the amount of warming predicted for current pledges, children will face a 7-fold increase in lifetime heatwave exposure compared to their grandparents; however, if warming is limited to 1.5°C, children will face only a 4-fold increase. Overall, the lifetime extreme event exposure burden on newborns will be reduced between 10–40% if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, depending on the extreme event category. This is a clear message of hope and a clear call to action. Scientifically and geophysically, there is nothing preventing us from decreasing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and limiting global warming to 1.5°C, which would safeguard the future of the world’s young generations.

How can science policy protect our children from climate change?

Every policy decision we make from now on will influence both lifetime extreme event exposure and climate-change impacts for real people. Every tenth of a degree matters. For many years, climate change has been viewed as an issue we must consider for the future, or for protecting people who live somewhere else. But climate change exists today, and it is everywhere. The current 1°C of warming is now causing extreme events around the world. No region is spared. Everybody aged 60 or younger will live an unprecedented life in terms of exposure to heatwaves and crop failures. Those under 40 will also face unprecedented exposure to droughts and river floods. These conditions are unmatched in the pre-industrial climate. But we can still avoid the worst. Climate change mitigation is about protecting the lives of everyone, everywhere, today.

How can children help the world to take the appropriate actions?

For decades, climate scientists have been saying the things I am telling you now. The difference is that, today, society and policy makers are listening and better understanding this information, due in large part to youth climate advocates. Young people from around the world are leading protest marches, school strikes, and even hunger strikes to demand ambitious climate action. Their message is clear, simple, and incredibly strong: listen to the science, understand the science, and act upon the science. Policy makers admit that discussions of climate actions, such as the European Green Deal, have become more relevant because young people are demanding it. These youths, who are often not yet old enough to vote, have made it clear that tackling climate change is about safeguarding their lives and their futures. Everyone—from the young to those who have children or grandchildren—can understand this message and call to action.

To paraphrase the great climate scientist Michael Mann: “Climate change conversations of the past have primarily been about the economy and how to implement policy. But Greta Thunberg and her fellow youth climate advocates have recentered these discussions around concepts of intergenerational ethics and justice”. In my case, these young people have inspired my research, and many of my colleagues and fellow climate scientists share my support of these youths and my respect for their impressive knowledge of climate science.

There has also been a recent surge in climate litigation, in which people around the world are suing governments and fossil fuel companies for contributing to negative climate impacts or for expressing insufficient ambition in terms of mitigating these impacts. In many cases, these lawsuits are spearheaded by young people, who believe that current policies violate their rights under the UN’s Convention on the Rights of the Child. Together, youth protests and climate litigation are game changers. Young people have, and will continue to play, a key role in the actions taken to protect their own futures.