The fossil fuel policy gap  

The United Nation’s 28th international climate summit, COP28, will take place at the end of a year that will almost certainly be the hottest since records began (1). Unprecedented wildfires, flooding, droughts, and heatwaves in recent months should sharply focus the minds of national governments on the action needed to stay within the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets. These have been translated widely by policymakers into mid-century net-zero targets, although the rapidly dwindling carbon budget for even a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C underlines the insufficiency of long-term targets in the absence of short-term action (2). Moreover, as Palazzo Corner et al. explain in their Frontiers in Science lead article (3), the prospect of additional warming even after we reach net-zero emissions is both plausible and significant. This raises the stakes even further and supercharges an already urgent imperative to reduce emissions, including in this critical decade.  

Phasing out fossil fuels, which are responsible for 90% of global carbon dioxide emissions, is central to this task (4). According to the Production Gap Report, countries should pursue a near-total phase-out of coal production by 2040 and a drop in oil and gas production by three-quarters from 2020 levels by 2050, with those countries with a greater capacity to transition taking the lead and supporting those that do not (4).  

And yet, agreeing to a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, including the need to stop adding more oil, gas, and coal to an existing oversupply, has emerged as a major fault line in the COP28 negotiations. Not only is there tension over the language regarding the fossil fuel phase-out—whether it will be “abated” or “unabated”, “phase-out”, or “phase-down”, fossil fuel “use” or “production and use”—but more alarmingly governments across the world are expanding domestic fossil fuel production, including in wealthy countries with diversified economies that should be leading the transition away from fossil fuels. In fact, governments plan to produce approximately 110% more fossil fuel in 2030 than is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and are on track to increase oil and gas production until at least 2050 (4). 

In the UK, for example—the second largest oil and gas producer in Europe—the government is encouraging new oil and gas production in the North Sea despite legally binding climate targets and stringent carbon budgets. The government plans to issue 100 new licenses this year (5) and, more significantly, just granted permission to Norwegian firm Equinor to drill Rosebank—the UK’s biggest undeveloped oil field (6). Similarly, Norway—Europe’s largest oil and gas producer—is continuing to expand oil and gas production while insisting it is on track with climate commitments. Across the Atlantic, the US government has accompanied its landmark Inflation Reduction Act with the approval of more permits for oil and gas drilling in Biden’s first 2 years than under the entirety of the 4-year Trump administration, including the large Willow oil project (7). US exports of liquified natural gas (LNG) have never been higher, with the US vying for the position of the world’s biggest LNG exporter (8). These wealthy countries with large historical emissions are claiming the mantle of climate leadership on the global stage, while doing the opposite at home—often hiding behind an “all of the above” approach to energy policy that seeks to expand oil and gas extraction alongside clean energy.  

The hypocrisy of these governments is no longer tenable and across the world communities are resisting fossil fuel projects through protests and litigation, and winning. The UK’s Cambo oil field was successfully halted in 2021 following fierce public opposition (9). Australian gas company Santos recently lost a challenge brought by a Tiwi Traditional Owner, Dennis Tipakalippa, to plans to drill the Barossa gas field (10). Fights are continuing in the US, where six environmental groups are progressing a legal challenge to the greenlighting of the Willow project (11). This is being mirrored in the UK courts, where lawsuits are being filed against the approval of the Rosebank oil field (6), and in Norway, where the approval of three new oil fields is being challenged (12). International courts and tribunals are also increasingly considering the international legal obligations that governments have to address climate change, including the International Court of Justice, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. The research of Palazzo Corner et al. (3) offers further evidence of the importance of the precautionary principle in international law and the imperative to keep fossil fuels in the ground. 

Multilateral initiatives to curtail fossil fuel production are also emerging outside the UN climate change negotiations, signaling a new and hopeful direction of travel. The Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance of countries is working to end new licensing and set a Paris Agreement-aligned date for ending oil and gas production and recently had Colombia—a major oil and gas producer—join its ranks. A growing group of countries is also calling for a new legal mechanism to facilitate a fair and equitable transition through a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.  

The eyes of the world will be on governments at COP28 to unite around the urgent need to phase- out fossil fuels. This must be backed up with national policies for a rapid and just transition away from oil, gas and coal. Policymakers can no longer ignore the need to bring emissions to zero and the era of fossil fuel extraction to a close.  

References

1. Carbon Brief. Analysis: ‘Greater than 99% chance’ 2023 will be hottest year on record. Hausfather Z. (2023). Available at : https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-greater-than-99-chance-2023-will-be-hottest-year-on-record 

2. Lamboll RD, Nicholls ZRJ, Smith CJ, Kikstra JS, Byers E, and Rogelj J. Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets. Nat Clim Chang (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5 

3. Palazzo Corner S, Siegert M, Ceppi P, Fox-Kemper B, Frölicher T, Gallego-Sala A, et al. The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization. Front Sci (2023) 1:1170744. doi: 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744 

4. SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G, IISD, UNEP. Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises: Production Gap Report 2023. SEI (2023). Available at https://doi.org/10.51414/sei2023.050 

5. North Sea Transition Authority. NSTA launches 33rd offshore oil and gas licensing round (2022). Available at : https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/nsta-launches-33rd-offshore-oil-and-gas-licensing-round/ 

6. Sweney M, and Taylor M. UK go-ahead for North Sea oil and gas field angers environmental groups. The Guardian (2023). Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/27/uk-gives-go-ahead-to-develop-rosebank-oil-and-gas-field-in-north-sea  

7. Davenport C. Biden administration moves to raise the cost of drilling on federal lands. New York Times (2023). Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/climate/biden-drilling-federal-lands.html#:~:text=The%20Biden%20administration%20approved%20more,saw%20record%20profits%20in%202022 

8. Olano MV. Chart: The US is now exporting more LNG than ever before. Canary Media (2023). Available at: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/liquefied-natural-gas/chart-the-us-is-now-exporting-more-lng-than-ever-before#:~:text=U.S.%20LNG%20exports%20are%20higher%20than%20ever&text=Global%20LNG%20exports%20ticked%20up,the%20world's%20top%20LNG%20exporter 

9. Harvey F. Shell pulls out of Cambo oilfield project. The Guardian (2021). Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/02/shell-pulls-out-of-cambo-oilfield-project. 

10. Cox L. ”We will win”: Tiwi Islanders draw a line in the sand against Santos gas project and ‘white fella rule’. The Guardian (2023). Available at:  https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/21/we-will-win-tiwi-islanders-draw-a-line-in-the-sand-against-santos-gas-project-and-white-fella-rule 

11. Gardner T. Green groups sue Biden admin over approval of Alaska Willow oil project. Reuters (2023). Available at : https://www.reuters.com/legal/green-groups-sue-biden-admin-over-approval-alaska-willow-oil-project-2023-03-14/  

12. Solsvik T. Environmental groups ask Norwegian court to halt three oil developments. Reuters (2023). Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/environment-campaigners-ask-court-halt-3-norwegian-oil-developments-2023-06-29/